Journal of Scientific Papers


© CSR, 2008-2015
ISSN 2071-789X

Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)

Strike Plagiarism

  • General Founder and Publisher:

    Centre of Sociological Research

  • Publishing Partners:

    University of Szczecin (Poland)

    Mykolas Romeris University (Lithuania)


    Alexander Dubcek University of Trencín, Faculty of Social and Economic Relations (Slovak Republic)

    University of Entrepreneurship and Law, (Czech Republic)


  • Membership:

    American Sociological Association

    European Sociological Association

    World Economics Association (WEA)




Stock Prices: Are Intuitive or Deliberate Persons Better Forecasters?

Vol. 8, No 4, 2015

Tobias Endress


University of Gloucestershire, Cheltenham, United Kingdom,



Tony Gear


University of Gloucestershire, Cheltenham, United Kingdom


Abstract. When it comes to financial decision-making like predicting stock price movements, it would be conceivable that rational people had an advantage over intuitive people. An experiment was conducted to test this hypothesis. Participants of the experiment provided repeated estimates for different shares and it was expected that rational people would end up with more ‘correct’ answers than intuitive people. Additionally, all participants of the experiment (N=59) completed a PID scale questionnaire (Betsch, 2004; Schunk & Betsch, 2006) to evaluate their preferences for deliberate or intuitive decision-making. The PID scale provided four categories to group people according to their preferences.

In summary, it was concluded that intuitive people were slightly, but not significantly, better with financial decision- making than were rational people. A higher significance was observed from a direct comparison of the four PID categories. Predictions of PID-S-plus participants were significantly more accurate.


Received: June, 2015

1st Revision: October, 2015

Accepted: December, 2015


DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X.2015/8-4/3

JEL Classification: D70, G11, G17, M51

Keywords: Forecasting,  decision-making,  financial  economics, equity predictions, stock trading.