Journal of Scientific Papers


© CSR, 2008-2015
ISSN 2071-789X

Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)

Strike Plagiarism

  • General Founder and Publisher:

    Centre of Sociological Research

  • Publishing Partners:

    University of Szczecin (Poland)

    Mykolas Romeris University (Lithuania)


    Alexander Dubcek University of Trencín, Faculty of Social and Economic Relations (Slovak Republic)

    University of Entrepreneurship and Law, (Czech Republic)


  • Membership:

    American Sociological Association

    European Sociological Association

    World Economics Association (WEA)




The Effect of Twin Shock on Fiscal Sustainability in Indonesia

Vol. 11, No 1, 2018



Universitas Gadjah Mada, 

Yogyakarta, Indonesia,

and Bank Indonesia Institute, 

Jakarta, Indonesia,

E-mails: and






Abstract. This paper analyzes the behaviour of fiscal sustainability in Indonesia by using stationarity and cointegration tests and analyzing fiscal reaction function in Indonesia during the period of 2001-2016. It employed economic fluctuations and unanticipated exchange rates to observe the effect of twin shock on fiscal reaction function. In addition, it applied VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) to cover and estimate the behaviour of fiscal reaction function in Indonesia. The VECM is a restricted VAR specified for use with cointegrated series and has nice interpretation with short- and long-run relationships.

Based on the stationarity test, cointegration and fiscal reaction function, the results indicate that there is the fiscal sustainability of the variables used, namely the foreign debt and the public sector primary deficit in the short and long term. The study indicates that the primary deficit is a key determinant of the external debt. These findings also reveal that the efforts of fiscal authorities to optimize the domestic financing sources should be supported because they can reduce the external debt and maintain the fiscal sustainability. In addition, in the long term, economic fluctuations and foreign exchange rate fluctuations have a positive effect on the external debt in Indonesia.


Received: November, 2017

1st Revision: December, 2017

Accepted: January, 2018



DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X.2018/11-1/5

JEL ClassificationE62, H63

Keywords: Fiscal sustainability, primary deficit, fiscal reaction function, economic and exchange rate fluctuations