Journal of Scientific Papers

ECONOMICS & SOCIOLOGY


© CSR, 2008-2015
ISSN 2071-789X

1.39
2017CiteScore
 
88th percentile
Powered by  Scopus



Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)


Strike Plagiarism

Partners
  • General Founder and Publisher:

     
    Centre of Sociological Research

     

  • Publishing Partners:

     
     
    University of Szczecin (Poland)


    Mykolas Romeris University (Lithuania)

     

     
     
    Alexander Dubcek University of Trencín, Faculty of Social and Economic Relations (Slovak Republic)



     
    University of Entrepreneurship and Law, (Czech Republic)



      

     

  • Membership:


    American Sociological Association


    European Sociological Association


    World Economics Association (WEA)

     


    CrossRef

     


“Deliberated Intuition” in Stock Price Forecasting

Vol. 11, No 3, 2018

Tobias Endress,

 

University of Gloucestershire,

Cheltenham, United Kingdom,

E-mail: tobias@endress.info

“Deliberated Intuition” in Stock Price Forecasting

 

 

 

Abstract. Financial analysis is a topic of interest for both academic research and businesses. Financial analysts are important elements of economic interactions. Nevertheless, there are doubts about the quality of their predictions. Special crowdsourcing platforms facilitate group decisions as an alternative to traditional financial analysis. The objective of this paper is to investigate the quality of predictions by individuals and groups using this alternative approach. Various groups – consisting of laypeople but also financial professionals – were formed purposefully to generate equity forecasts. The data from the experiment suggest that some variables, in terms of participants’ characteristics, have a significant impact on the quality of predictions. The results show that intuition plays an important role in the decision-making process. Also, good predictors base their intuition on several factors. The results led to an explanatory model, which we introduce as “deliberated intuition”, a practice process being different for each individual. It appears that thinking about the problem in different ways and with various techniques contribute to making good predictions. The model may help in designing teams for traditional financial analysts.

 

Received: May, 2018

1st Revision: May, 2018

Accepted: June, 2018

 

DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X.2018/11-3/1

JEL ClassificationD70, D91, G11, G17, N24

Keywords: forecasting, decision-making, deliberated intuition, equity predictions, stock prices