Silviu Nate

Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Sibiu, Romania

E-mail: silviu.nate@ulbsibiu.ro

ORCID 0000-0002-4711-1061

Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on Black Sea trade: Geoeconomic challenges

Antonia Colibășanu

Geopolitical Futures, USA;

SNSPA, Romania 

E-mail: oana.colibasanu@gmail.com

ORCID 0000-0002-3018-5515

Andriy Stavytskyy

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine; Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Sibiu, Romania

E-mail: a.stavytskyy@gmail.com

ORCID 0000-0002-5645-6758

Ganna Kharlamova

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine; Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Sibiu, Romania

E-mail: akharlamova@ukr.net

ORCID 0000-0003-3614-712X

Abstract. This paper investigates the strategic importance of the Black Sea region in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Focusing on trade dynamics, geopolitical actors, and regional cooperation, the study analyzes the region's transformation and the resulting implications for global trade. The paper examines how the conflict has redefined trade relationships among Black Sea nations and major powers. For this purpose, trend models are evaluated for three-time samples for the export and import of products of 7 countries of the Black Sea Basin in both nominal and relative dimensions. In total, the evaluation and analysis encompass 1764 econometric models. Noteworthy trends include the evolving roles of the EU, the Middle East, and Russia, the potential resurgence of Ukraine, and Turkey's mediating role. The post-conflict landscape could witness heightened Western influence and continued Chinese engagement.

Received: May, 2023

1st Revision: December, 2023

Accepted: March, 2024

DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X.2024/17-1/16

JEL Classification: F12, F4, O24

Keywords: Black Sea region, trade flows, geopolitical dynamics, conflict aftermath, regional cooperation