Tobias Endress,

University of Gloucestershire,

Cheltenham, United Kingdom,

E-mail: tobias@endress.info

“Deliberated Intuition” in Stock Price Forecasting

Abstract. Financial analysis is a topic of interest for both academic research and businesses. Financial analysts are important elements of economic interactions. Nevertheless, there are doubts about the quality of their predictions. Special crowdsourcing platforms facilitate group decisions as an alternative to traditional financial analysis. The objective of this paper is to investigate the quality of predictions by individuals and groups using this alternative approach. Various groups – consisting of laypeople but also financial professionals – were formed purposefully to generate equity forecasts. The data from the experiment suggest that some variables, in terms of participants’ characteristics, have a significant impact on the quality of predictions. The results show that intuition plays an important role in the decision-making process. Also, good predictors base their intuition on several factors. The results led to an explanatory model, which we introduce as “deliberated intuition”, a practice process being different for each individual. It appears that thinking about the problem in different ways and with various techniques contribute to making good predictions. The model may help in designing teams for traditional financial analysts.

Received: May, 2018

1st Revision: May, 2018

Accepted: June, 2018

DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X.2018/11-3/1

JEL Classification: D70, D91, G11, G17, N24

Keywords: forecasting, decision-making, deliberated intuition, equity predictions, stock prices