Iuliia Kostynets

National Academy of Management, 

Kyiv, Ukraine

E-mail: yulia.kostinets@gmail.com

ORCID 0000-0001-6427-675X

Pent-up demand effect at the tourist market

Valeriia Kostynets

Kyiv National University of Technology and Design,

Kyiv, Ukraine

E-mail: valeriya1989@i.ua

ORCID 0000-0002-4222-7620

Vitalii Baranov

National Aviation University Flight Academy,

Kropyvnytskyy, Ukraine

E-mail: vaiss@ukr.net

Abstract. The article is dedicated to modeling of the effect of the pent-up demand situation at the tourist market caused by the current epidemiological situation in the world. The authors have investigated the current trends at the global travel services market in connection with the COVID-19 outbreak. The article determines that tourism is most sensitive to the crises of epidemiological, political and economic nature. In this regard, the authors analyzed the situation with pent-up demand for tourist services based on the data from the previous periods. To simulate the effect of the pent-up demand situation at the tourist services market, the authors are looking at tourism products in Italy and France, considering the current COVID-19 outbreak in these countries. The authors analyzed the English-language and Russian-language queries "Tours to Italy" and "Journey to Paris" using the Google Trends data and determined the dynamics of search queries over the past five years. The correlation analysis has confirmed that the popularity of searches from potential consumers is closely correlated with the volume of real demand for tourist services.

Received: November, 2019

1st Revision: February, 2020

Accepted: June, 2020

DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X.2020/13-2/18

JEL Classification: R22, L83, G01, O50

Keywords: pent-up demand, tourist services, epidemiological situation, economic crisis