Piotr Błędowski

SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland

E-mail: pbledo@sgh.waw.pl

ORCID 0000-0003-4207-2283

Incarceration experience at older ages. Does employment protect against recidivism?

Joanna Felczak

SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland

E-mail: jfelcz@sgh.waw.pl

ORCID 0000-0003-2325-7805

Ewa Gałecka-Burdziak

SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland;

LCC, Australia

E-mail: eburdz@sgh.waw.pl

ORCID 0000-0001-9020-8486

Marek Góra

SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland

E-mail: mgora@sgh.waw.pl

ORCID 0000-0001-9117-1603

Abstract. We investigate whether employment protects against and/or postpones recidivism among males who committed their first crime late in life. We use administrative data on 34,401 individuals, 44% of whom were employed at least once during the analysed period. We apply a multi-state model and difference in-differences approach. The results of the multi-state model indicate that employment reduced the risk of recidivism by 7% for those who were at risk of a second incarceration. On the other hand, employment increased the probability of subsequent recidivism by 8-10% for those who were at risk of a third or fourth incarceration. Our results suggest that institutional interventions should seek to increase the labour market attachment of former prisoners, and, in particular, should focus on ex-offenders with only one conviction. Being attached to the labour force seems to matter more, the fewer imprisonment spells an individual has experienced.

Received: March, 2022

1st Revision: August, 2022

Accepted: March, 2023

DOI: 10.14254/2071-789X.2023/16-1/1

JEL Classification: C41, C55, I39, J64, J88

Keywords: recidivism, incarceration, employment, unemployment, multi-state models